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id="fontzoom"> <p><section> <div class="Custom_UnionStyle"> <p><span style="font-size:16px;">  春节前后Q全球各大类资l箋演绎在风险偏好提升背景下的行情。其中,大宗商品、股等风险资的h格纷U创出阶D|甚臛_史性高炏V与此同Ӟ有代表性的10q期国国债收益率升破1.3%Q带动主要经体国债收益率明显走高。面对全球范围内无风险利率加快上行的情况Q投资者需警惕股票{资产的估值所受到的媄响。当前,金融市场交易的逻辑ȝ已从动性向好{为经修复,中短期内利率上行风险有限Q预计资产估值所受到的媄响可控,但市场风格可能生变?/span></p> <p><span style="font-size:16px;">  资估g无风险利率一般呈反向变化。此前,在流动性逻辑d市场交易的阶D,无风险利率快速下行在资估值扩张过E中起到重要作用。随着全球市场利率步入上行通道Q市Zh士担心这U情况可能挤压股等资的估倹{?/span></p> <p><span style="font-size:16px;">  从中长期看,q种现象的确应引起重视。在外新冠肺炎疫情逐渐缓的背景下Q全球经复苏有望走上同频共振的良性轨道,前期外宽松货币政{将适时退出,主要l济体市场利率上行的风险不断U篏。当前,全球主要l济体市场利率已从前期低点出C同程度的上升Q虽然M上仍处于较低水^Q但潜在上升I间值得x?/span></p> <p><span style="font-size:16px;">  在中短期内,全球主要l济体市场利率的上行风险相对有限。近期,外主要l济体市场利率较快上行的主要原因是通胀预期的变化。这主要体现在两斚wQ一是美国国债收益率曲线呈陡峭化上行态势Q但中短期利率变化不大,是典型的通胀预期驱动形态;二是国通胀指数国债(TIPSQ收益率基本保持E_Q表明债券利率上行主要受通胀预期影响Q而不是实际利率上行所致。事实上Qv外主要经体货币政策q未转向。近日,两年期美国国债收益率保持q稳Q表明市场对联储货币政{的预期未出现明昑֏化,市场通胀预期的变化ƈ未引赯币政{预期的收紧。鉴于上行压力已有所释放、基本面变化q有待验证,q期外主要l济体市场利率快速上行势头难以持l?/span></p> <p><span style="font-size:16px;">  国内市言Q由于我国经恢复进E更早启动,市场利率拐点也更早探明。无论是短期的银行间市场存款cL?天期债券回购利率QDR007Q,q是长期?0q期国债收益率Q均?020q?月创出阶D|低点,此后便{而上行,对经Ş势及政策预期的变化反映得比较充分。在货币政策“E?rdquo;字当头的当下Q国内市场利率上行势头已有所攄?/span></p> <p><span style="font-size:16px;">  此外Q利率不是媄响资产估值的唯一因素。当前,金融市场交易的逻辑ȝ已从动性向好{为经修复,风险偏好较高。基本面因素和风险偏好在市场q行中扮演着更重要角艌Ӏv外市场通胀预期上升Q本质上是经乐观预期升温的反映。股等风险资2021q可能面临经改善与利率上行共存的局面,波动性可能加大。但在全球通胀压力显性化、主要央行货币政{收紧前Q利率上行风险不大,在与盈利改善的媄响对冲后Q短期内对资产估值的影响M可控。高估值板块若得不到盈利改善的支撑Q承受的压力会大些,市场风格也可能会有所变化?/span></p> </div> </section></p> <p> </p> </div> </div> <div class="contArticle_bot_Artpage"> <span id="pe100_page_contentpage" class="pagecss"></span> </div> <div class="c_contant_end"> 您可以分享或转发本文臻I <div class="bdsharebuttonbox"><a href="#" class="bds_more" data-cmd="more"></a><a href="#" class="bds_weixin" data-cmd="weixin" title="分n到微?></a><a href="#" class="bds_tsina" data-cmd="tsina" title="分n到新微?></a><a href="#" class="bds_tqq" data-cmd="tqq" title="分n到腾讯微?></a><a href="#" class="bds_renren" data-cmd="renren" 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